Methodology

Closing-line value (CLV)

For each alert we record the decimal price taken and its implied probability. At event start we capture the independent closing probability. CLV = closing probability − implied probability taken, in probability points (pp). Positive CLV means the market moved toward our alert: we got a better price than the final consensus.

Independent close

The close is a Pinnacle closing line read materially after the alert (minimum separation enforced) and near event start. If no qualifying close exists, the row is marked ungradable and excluded from every statistic — exclusions can only shrink the record, never inflate it.

The 2026-07-24 cutover

Rows graded before 2026-07-24 used a closer that could re-read the alert-time price as the "close", producing circular, fake-positive CLV. Those rows are permanently excluded and the flaw is documented rather than papered over. Nothing on this site predates the independence-preserving closer.

The §8 verification gate

The record is stamped PASS only when all three hold: (1) the clean sample has at least 130 graded alerts; (2) the 95% bootstrap confidence interval of mean CLV lies entirely above zero; (3) the sample does not show the circular-close fingerprint (a ~100% beat rate with near-zero anchor drift). Until all three hold it is stamped PAPER-TRADE. The gate can revoke itself: if the edge decays, the stamp goes back to PAPER-TRADE.

What is deliberately excluded

Player-prop alerts are not part of the offered stream: our own grading shows no demonstrated prop edge to date. Implausibly large game-line "edges" (>10%) are suppressed as stale-book artifacts rather than alerted. Paper-trading means no execution ever occurs.